Federal election 2025: Insights and impacts for Canada’s auto care sector
As Canada heads toward a pivotal federal election in 2025, uncertainty looms—not just in political circles but across the business landscape. This election arrives at a moment of profound societal, economic, and geopolitical change for the auto care sector.
At the Canadian Auto Care Industry Conference (CAIC), David Coletto, founder, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, one of Canada’s most respected public opinion analysts, provided attendees with a compelling breakdown of why this election matters more than ever for the future of auto care in Canada.
David Coletto, Abacus Data
From scarcity to precarity: The consumer mindset shift
Over the last two years, Canadians have been navigating what Coletto calls a “scarcity mindset”—a pervasive sense that essential goods and services are harder to access, whether affordable housing, a family doctor, or a reliable vehicle. Inflation, high interest rates, and general economic instability have deeply shaped consumers’ decisions. However, in just the past few months, Coletto argues that Canadians have entered a new phase: precarity.
Where scarcity breeds anxiety about cost and access, precarity reflects a deeper fear—that the very systems we rely on may no longer be stable. It is not just about whether people can get their vehicles maintained or repaired; it is about whether or not the services available and affordable today will be so tomorrow. From economic instability to climate concerns to the looming influence of United States of America politics, Canadians are feeling vulnerable in new ways.
This change in mindset is reshaping how Canadians vote—and how they spend.
An election fueled by emotion and uncertainty
The Canadian political landscape has shifted dramatically since late 2024. For months, it appeared the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, was leading the polls. Soon after, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned, and the new Liberal leader, Mark Carney, took office. Amidst all that, there have been talks of trade, tariffs, and Trump’s return to office.
Now, in late March, the liberal party and Mark Carney have gained significant momentum and, to take advantage of that momentum, have called an election that will take place on April 28.
While affordability remains the top concern, United States of America politics have become the second most important issue for Canadian voters—leapfrogging healthcare and housing.
For the auto care sector, this means navigating a policy landscape where the priorities may shift rapidly depending on who wins—and how they respond to global instability.
What this means for the auto care sector
1. Consumers are delaying big purchases
Nearly 70 per cent of Canadians say they are putting off major purchases—like vehicles—because of economic uncertainty. This impacts car dealerships, repair shops, and auto care businesses alike. People are holding on to older vehicles longer, which may increase demand for maintenance and repairs—a good thing for the auto care sector—but also puts pressure on affordability and parts availability.
2. Right to repair and local advocacy
The right to repair remains a crucial issue—and in a time of economic stress, it is more relevant than ever. Canadians want affordable, accessible vehicle repair options. If political leaders are serious about affordability and competition, the auto care sector must ensure this issue stays front and center in the next federal agenda.
Advocacy must go beyond just business economics—it must also appeal to voters’ evolving concerns: fairness, autonomy, and local resilience.
3. Immigration, workforce, and the long game
Immigration policy is now on pause after a dramatic shift in public opinion. What was once seen as a Canadian strength is now under intense scrutiny, with 70 per cent of Canadians saying our targets are too high.
That poses a real threat to industries like auto care that rely on international talent—from technicians to service staff. In the long term, the auto care sector must help rebuild public trust in immigration by showing how newcomers strengthen local communities and keep critical services running.
What to watch: Key indicators leading up to election day
The upcoming election presents a complex landscape shaped by several competing priorities. A key tension lies between affordability and stability—voters must decide whether their primary concern is the rising cost of living or broader anxieties about global instability.
Meanwhile, shifting support in recent polling reveals a surge in backing for the Liberals alongside a dip for the Conservatives. However, the race remains closely contested and is expected to play out differently across regions.
The generational divide is also prominent: younger voters continue to prioritize economic survival, while older voters are more focused on geopolitical issues. As a result, political messaging and policy platforms will need to resonate with both groups.
Finally, the rural-urban divide is sharpening. Conservatives maintain strong support in rural areas, whereas Liberals are making gains in suburban and urban ridings, which could lead to divergent regulatory outcomes that impact businesses differently depending on their location—for instance, auto care businesses in metropolitan regions may face distinct challenges compared to those in rural communities.
Looking ahead
The 2025 federal election will not just decide who governs—it will shape the operating environment for Canada’s auto care sector for years to come. From consumer sentiment to immigration, trade policy to environmental regulations, the ripple effects will be felt in every country’s shop, service bay, and parts supplier.
Whether preparing for regulatory change, shifting your supply chain strategy, or doubling down on local engagement, now is the time to stay informed, adaptable, and connected to the evolving political landscape.
Because in a time of precarity, resilience is not just a buzzword—it is a business imperative.
Get involved
With the federal election approaching, AIA Canada’s new online hub, AutoCareVotes.ca, aims to help auto care professionals advocate for industry priorities, such as the right to repair, combatting auto theft, and addressing labour shortages. This platform provides tools to engage directly with candidates in ridings across the country. Auto care professionals and businesses can get involved by connecting to their Member of Parliament (MP) by introducing yourself and your business, or writing a letter to support your advocacy efforts.
This blog has been created based on David Coletto’s presentation, Federal election 2025: Insights for Canada’s auto care industry, at the 2025 edition of the AIA Canada National Conference at the Canadian Auto Care Industry Conference.