Oh Canada! 2019 Election Analysis

The vote for who would become Canada’s next Prime Minister kicked off strong with 29 percent more votes cast in advanced polling this election versus election 2015.[1] The strong kickoff was followed by 66 percent voter turnout on Election Day – a dip in voter turnout compared to the 68.3 percent turnout in 2015.[2] This means that of the 27 million Canadians eligible to vote, 17.9 million did.[3]

Election 2019 resulted in a minority government. While the Liberals will send the largest number of Members of Parliament to the Hill, “they did so with only about 33% of the popular vote. This is not only less than the Conservative Party, but it’s the smallest level of support for any new government (Majority or Minority) in Canadian history.”[4]

The Liberal party did not pick up a single seat in Alberta and Saskatchewan where Conservatives swept; winning all but one seat in the two provinces.[5] It was Ontario that “proved to be the key to the Liberals’ victory on election night; the party won almost two-thirds of the provinces 121 seats.[6]

A minority government

To govern unilaterally a party needs to win 170 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons.[7] If no party wins more than 170 seats, there is a minority government. That means the party that “forms government will need the support of other parties to pass any legislation. It also means they can face a non-confidence vote at any moment.”[8]

As the final seat count reveals, the Liberals fell short of a majority by 13 seats:[9]

In a minority government, Trudeau may try to “pass bills on a case-by-case basis, negotiating for the support of one or more of the other parties. He could also establish a formal coalition, in which parties share cabinet seats.”[10] However, coalition arrangements are rare in Canada.

Under a minority, the government will look to other parties to ensure its survival “and the next campaign, which could happen at any time.”[11] Summa Strategies, the government relations consultancy firm which AIA Canada partners with, made the following prediction as to who the Liberals will seek support from and why:

“The Liberals will be looking for support from the NDP and Greens in order to keep this minority government from falling. Their policy platforms have certain synergies on climate change and pharmacare, but they stand on opposite ends when it comes to trade and the energy file.”[12]

Election outcomes and the aftermarket industry

AIA Canada has built strong connections with the Liberal government. This year has been phenomenal for the association and the aftermarket as the voice of the aftermarket was sought after by the federal government to participate in numerous government initiatives related to future mobility. These initiatives will inform the management framework that will govern connected and autonomous vehicles. The future prosperity of the aftermarket is dependent on the policies and regulations contained in the management framework.

Summa Strategies has identified the following key wins from the 2019 election for Canada’s automotive aftermarket industry:

• A strong Liberal minority means that the current government is aware of the aftermarket industry’s key files, providing continuity and consistency.
• The Digital Charter and data privacy issues will be at the forefront of the Liberal agenda, particularly with the NDP and Green parties making up a balance of power. Decisions made about consumer data will affect the entire aftermarket supply chain by determining if:
  • Shops can communicate with the vehicle to access data needed for repair and diagnostics and to deliver digital and data driven services, like over-the-air updates.
  • The industry can benefit from connectivity and data-based business models which use data as the primary decision-making tool for operations including supply chain and just-in-time inventory management.
  • The industry can take advantage of emerging markets in automotive digital products and services.
• With the NDP likely to be a key Liberal ally, the industry may benefit from the NDP’s Right to Repair platform commitment that aligns with the industry’s access to wireless vehicle data advocacy efforts.
• NDP MP, Brian Masse held onto his seat in Windsor West by more than 2,000 votes. This is likely to give Masse more power within the NDP caucus. This is good for the industry as it was Masse that led government efforts to ensure the aftermarket’s continued access to vehicle data following the introduction of the ODB-II in the early 2000s. Masse remains a key government champion in present day.

[1] Colleta, A. (Oct. 22, 2019). Canada election: Trudeau to lead minority government. Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/trudeau-and-scheer-in-tight-race-as-canadians-cast-ballots/2019/10/21/2b7daf06-f101-11e9-bb7e-d2026ee0c199_story.html

[2] [2] Lupick. T. (Oct. 22, 2019). Voter turnout for Canada’s 2019 federal election was, well, meh. The Georgia Straight. Retrieved from https://www.straight.com/news/1316836/voter-turnout-canadas-2019-federal-election-was-well-meh

[3] Hayes, M. (Oct. 22, 2019). Federal election 2019: Voter turnout dips to 66 per cent compared with enthusiasm that brought Trudeau to power four years ago. Globe and Mail. Retrieved from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-election-2019-voter-turnout-dips-compared-with-enthusiasm/

[4] Summa Strategies. (Oct. 22, 2019). Election 2019 results and analysis.

[5] Summa Strategies. (Oct. 22, 2019). Election 2019 results and analysis.

[6] Summa Strategies. (Oct. 22, 2019). Election 2019 results and analysis.

[7] Gilchrist, E. (Oct. 21, 2019). What a Liberal minority government means for Canada’s environment. Retrieved The Narwhal. Retrieved from https://thenarwhal.ca/what-a-liberal-minority-government-means-for-canadas-environment/

[8] Gilchrist, E. (Oct. 21, 2019). What a Liberal minority government means for Canada’s environment. Retrieved The Narwhal. Retrieved from https://thenarwhal.ca/what-a-liberal-minority-government-means-for-canadas-environment/

[9] Gilchrist, E. (Oct. 21, 2019). What a Liberal minority government means for Canada’s environment. Retrieved The Narwhal. Retrieved from https://thenarwhal.ca/what-a-liberal-minority-government-means-for-canadas-environment/

[10] Colleta, A. (Oct. 22, 2019). Canada election: Trudeau to lead minority government. Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/trudeau-and-scheer-in-tight-race-as-canadians-cast-ballots/2019/10/21/2b7daf06-f101-11e9-bb7e-d2026ee0c199_story.html

[11] Brewster, M. (Oct. 22, 2019). The voting is over, now the hard part begins for a minority government. CBC News. Retrieved from https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-minority-government-function-1.5329358

[12] Summa Strategies. (Oct. 22, 2019). Election 2019 results and analysis.